Sunday, August 21, 2011

Betting On Quitters


Winning With Eb Netr....
People hate a quitter, whether it's a human athlete or a dog who quits and loses. If you want to see a bunch of agitated bettors, look around at the crowd - or just listen to their indignant yowling - when a favorite slows down and lets the other dogs pass him at the finish line. Why in the world would a dog do that?
Well, I can tell you one thing: They don't do it to annoy the bettors. As I've said before, dogs don't know that anyone is betting on them and they don't know that they're running a race. As far as they're concerned, they're chasing prey in a pack. They'll run their hearts out to be first to get the prey, but they can only run as fast and as far as their physical limits will let them.

If you've ever sprinted or jogged until you have a stitch in your side and your lungs are burning so badly that you can't take another step, you should sympathize with dogs who just don't have that last bit of speed. They've used up everything they have and there's nothing left to call on when the other dogs are still going strong. I don't know if they feel bad when the other dogs pass them, but they might.
People don't look at quitters like that though. They bet on a dog, it "quits" i.e. can't sustain enough speed to win and they feel like they got robbed. They vow that they'll never bet on that dog again. I don't think that's the answer.
What they should do is calm down and look at the replays, paying close attention to the break and the 1/8th call. Chances are, they'll see that there was a lot of early speed in the race. The dog who "quit" used all its energy and strength trying to keep up with the other early speed dogs and burned itself out.
Next time that dog is in a race, the bettors who bet on it last time aren't going to look at it as favorably. They're going to remember how it "quit" and figure that it'll quit again in this race. They may be right. But if they're wrong, there's a chance to make some good money.
Look at the race and see how much early speed is in it. Look at the times that the early speed dogs have been running. This race might be a whole 'nother thing if there's not that much early speed and the dogs' times are about the same or slower than the "quitter's" times and speed.
If the so-called "quitter" has class and good post position, I'd bet it to win and in quinielas with other likely looking dogs. (I bet three or four-dog quiniela boxes, depending on the quiniela odds, usually.) I've done this many times and love to hear the crowd yelling in puzzlement at the end of the race, "He's a quitter! So why didn't he quit this time?" They don't know, but we do and it's money in the bank.
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