Monday, November 1, 2010

Eb Netr On Greyhound Handicapping

Greyhound Handicapping Isn’t an Exact Science

By Eb Netr
Do you bet on sure things? When you see a dog that is much faster, on average, than the other dogs in a race, are you surprised when it doesn’t come in? What about the numbers? Do you crunch them for each dog in every race and then watch in bewilderment when the numbers don’t work?
Don’t feel alone if you do any of these things. It happens to all of us. Although, in general, playing dogs that are likely to win is the best course to follow, it doesn’t mean that they’ll always win, no matter how good their numbers look.
It would be foolish to consistently bet against dogs whose past performance records show that they have more class than the dogs they’re running against. Usually, all things being equal, class dogs will prevail over dogs with less class. However, there are exceptions.

One situation where the numbers don’t work is with spot plays. These are dogs in special situations who have a secret reason for winning, that gives them just a little more pizazz than the other dogs. Sometimes, this makes up for a lack of class and gives them just that little push that lets them get their nose over the finish line a whisker ahead of a dog with more class.
Although I advocate sticking with bets that are based on the most probable outcome predicted by past performances, there are times when I bet against this logic, because I know a dog is better than it looks on the program. Those of us who actually pay attention to the dogs, learn their history and follow their races from puppy to mature adult, sometimes know when a dog is in a situation where it’s likely to surprise the crowd with a performance that is better than it’s usual run.
So, what I recommend is a combination of past performance statistics and handicapping judgment gained over years of experience to bet on dogs at the greyhound track. Don’t just use the numbers, but don’t ignore the statistics either. Combine them with a deep knowledge of the dogs to pick dogs that are your best all around bets.
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