Monday, February 28, 2011

Eb Netr On Greyhound Handicapping

Using Win and Quiniela Percentage

By Eb Netr
When you pick dogs to bet at the track, what do you look for? Class, speed, consistency, win percentage? When you look at a race where two dogs are pretty evenly matched, what makes you choose one over the other? And, after you do that, what do you do with the dog that you didn’t pick?
Most people can find more than one dog they like in a race. If you’re like me, you may have the problem of finding too many dogs in a race. So, if you can narrow your picks down to two dogs, this is a good thing. Only, then you have to figure out how to play them.

Let’s say you like the 1 dog and the 2 dog. They’re the only really early speed in the race and they both like the inside. You figure they have a good chance of being the quiniela, so you play them in that, but do you play them both to win?
While you’re pondering this question, I have a suggestion. Put your bet on hold and think for a minute. Look at the dogs’ records. When dogs have a lot of early speed, very often they win races. Also, very often, they don’t place nearly as often as they win.
A lot of breakers either win or they come in at the middle of back of the pack. If this is the case with either of the dogs you’re betting on, what’s the point of putting them into a quiniela box? Why not find another dog that has a good quiniela percentage – a dog that comes in 2nd on a regular basis – and throw that dog into the quiniela box?
You’ll have a much better chance of catching the winner and the next dog over the finish line. You’ll also get a better payoff if the two big favorites don’t both come in. Betting is just a matter of figuring out how much to risk based on the likelihood of reward. Figure out if a dog is a good bet by looking at its win AND place percentage and make more money at the dog track.

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