Sunday, July 24, 2011

Winning in the Rain

Handicapping With....Eb Netr
Sooner or later, it happens to every bettor. You're all ready to go to the track. You've handicapped the program and found a slew of good bets. You even have some extra money in your pocket and your spouse has gone out with a friend, so you won't be accused of neglect. You grab your keys, head out to the car and get about halfway to the track when it starts to rain.
The forecast didn't call for rain, but apparently the weather gods didn't listen to the forecast, because it's pouring as you park in the track parking lot and sit there thinking about whether you even want to go in now. After all, who knows what's gonna happen with the track getting wetter by the minute?

Well, if you'd done our homework, you'd know. Rain has an effect on the dogs at every track, but every track is different, so you have to study your track's track bias when it's wet. My approach is to go online and get a program, even when I'm not going to bet or go to the track that day. That way, I can see which dogs run well when it's wet and which dogs don't. Like people, there are a few dogs who just hate getting wet. Not many, but some, and it's important to know which ones they are.
No matter how good some dogs look, if they hate having mud kicked up in their faces, they're not going to give it their best effort. Other dogs, however, who may just be so-so runners on a dry track, actually love running in the mud and - like little kids - splash cheerfully through even the biggest puddles all the way to the finish line.
Sometimes, and this is true of my favorite track, heavy dogs are favored when the track is wet. When it rains, I like to look for a heavy dog with some early speed who's at decent odds. Then I bet it to win and place. You'd be surprised at how often people overlook this, although the horse players know about it from betting "mudders" at the horse track.
Also at my favorite track and maybe at yours, when the track goes beyond muddy to sloppy, things change. Heavy dogs stop coming in and smaller dogs, often older dogs and it seems to me that a lot of them are females, seem to skim right over the mud to win for fun.
So, keep an eye on the weather and its effects on the track and the dogs at your track. Look back at a dog's previous races and look for races designated "M" for muddy or "S" for sloppy. See how they did and which box they did the best from on muddy or sloppy tracks. That way, even when it rains, you'll have the edge to win in spite of the weather.
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