Monday, January 9, 2012

How The High Rollers Do It

Win With Eb...
I'm not a big risk-taker. I like bets that have a reasonable chance of paying off. I don't usually go for the high-roller type bet where I can win a lot, but also lose a lot. This is why my friend, Lou, is always making fun of my "wimpy" betting style.

Lou is a Gambler with a capital G. I know he cashes big tickets, because I've stood behind him in line and see him at the IRS window all the time. He bets strictly trifectas and has had some real longshots with big payoffs. He had a trifecta, one time, where the winner paid over $50!

I've hit some big trifectas and even superfectas in my time, but not by betting as much as he does. He thinks nothing of dropping hundreds of dollars on a race and doesn't flinch when he loses. He says he makes it up on other races. I have no reason to doubt him, but I wouldn't be comfortable doing what he does. I subscribe to the "slow and steady" method of making money.

That doesn't mean that I can't benefit from some of his methods though. I've watched him and I know how he picks dogs that pay off big time when they come in. One of the ways he does it is by betting on dogs that come in just often enough for people to lose interest in them between in-the-money finishes.

For instance, if a dog only runs in the money 50% of the time and it's in a race with a couple of dogs that run in the money 75% of the time, who is the crowd going to bet on? But what happens if the 75% dogs don't come in? They don't come in every time or they'd be 100%, not 75%. And if the 50% dog comes in, it pays big. Lou knows this and bets accordingly.

He also looks for dogs that the crowd overlooks in a race where there's a lot of early speed - especially if there's one dog that always breaks and takes the lead. This is when my friend looks for a dog that never breaks, never is first to the turn and never runs at the front of the pack, but closes and comes in the money a third of the time or more. Most bettors don't like "back runners". They like front runners.

So, if Lou is lucky, this time the breaker will win with the longshot back runner right behind it. Better yet, as sometimes happens, the longshot will just nip the breaker at the wire and win and the trifecta will be a very nice one. Even if the longshot comes in third, if Lou has the other two trifecta dogs, he'll cash in.

Most fans handicap quickly, if at all. They look for early speed, great win averages and dogs that really stand out from the other dogs. This is how crowd favorites are made. Even trifecta players forget that there are three dogs in every trifecta. Quiniela and in-the money finishes count as much as win percentages if you're picking three dogs. Any dog that runs in the money at least a third of the time has to be considered for trifectas, especially if it has other factors going for it.

If you look for consistent dogs - the everyday bread and butter dogs that come in often enough to earn their owners a steady income - you can find dogs that the crowd doesn't consider. Put them into your quiniela and trifecta bets and you can do what Lou does, without risking as much money.

Of course, hitting trifectas is easier when you have a winning trifecta system and you can find them at

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