Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Play The Logical Dog To Win

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Greyhound handicapping isn't an exact science, but it does often hinge on logic. For instance, if a dog has had 20 races, placed in ten and run out of the money in the rest of them, would you consider it a good win bet? Well, even though there are some people - born optimists, I guess who would say "it's due", I wouldn't play it to win and I doubt you would either.

It seems obvious, but you'd be surprised how often the obvious is what happens in dog racing. And when it happens, you'd also be surprised at how many people don't realize that it's the most obvious outcome. Take dogs who win in Grade C, move up to Grade B, take a few races to win and then move up to Grade A, where they fail miserably. They look horrible, so when they drop back down to Grade B, most of the bettors take one look at their record and think that they're a lousy bet.
The reason they're NOT bad bets is because they've done something that proves that they're able to win in Grade B. Yup, they've won in Grade B. Even if they look horrible in their Grade A races, it doesn't mean that they're in a downward spiral. It just means that - for whatever reason - they weren't up to making it in Grade A. At least, not at this time. Maybe they'll move up again and make it and maybe they won't. What's obvious is that they've already made it in Grade B, which is where they're running.
When I see this situation, I take a really close look at the other dogs. Once in a while, you'll find a race where none of the other dogs has won in Grade B. To me, this is a situation ripe for the plucking and I play the only dog who has won in Grade B. And very often, it wins at good odds. People hate to bet on "losers" and that's how they see this dog, because it lost in Grade A.
One of my mantras is one that I got from Bill Peterson, the horse racing handicapper. Bill says, "If it happens once, it'll happen again." He also says, "Play the horse (or dog) that has already done what it's being asked to do today." So, next time you see a dog that has moved up through the ranks to Grade A, but hasn't won in A, and it's at good odds, consider it carefully. It just might do again, what it's already done, and put some cash in your pocket.
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