Thursday, March 15, 2012

American Derby Preview Round 2

United Greyhound Racing's Round 2 American Derby Pre-Race Analysis...

By: Clint Locklear

The 2nd Round of the American Derby will be held this Friday night, March 16, during the second of two race cards. Races 3, 4, 5,6,7,8 are all qualifying events. The following is a breakdown of each race:

 First qualifier of the evening (race three in the program) is headlined by three first round winners, Jax Wanda Rinn (#4), Show You Want (#5), and Kelsos Fabulous (#7). Fleet footed Fabulous will try to wire this field in the same manner she did Monday night. Fabulous needs the front to avoid discouragement and if she does, she's lethal. Her nine length win in the first round may have not been such a fluke. She wired a grade C field on the 16th of February by fifteen lengths in a blazing quick 37.32.
Mo's Real McCoy (#3) is a dog that has shown early foot on the sprint course and will try to disrupt Kelsos Fabulous by getting the jump on her. McCoy, a World Classic Finalist, is seeking to add another stakes final to his resume; however he is an unknown at this distance.
Tb's Final Stand (#8), a stakes champion at this distance last year at Southland, continues to struggle with just one win from eleven starts at Mardi Gras. Final Stand has the potential to fire big, but we've been waiting all meet for that to happen.

Atascocita Ava (#1), CB's Bentley (#2), and Kiowa Fire Opal (#6) round out the field.

Bottom Line: Stick with Kelsos Fabulous as she's the quickest in this group and could be rounding into top form. Show You Want will always be there so center tickets around this safety net.

The second qualifier of the night (race 4) offers no first round winners but is heavy on talent.
It'll be hard to ignore likely post time favorite WW's Rochelle. She ran into a monster Monday night finishing third to Kelsos Guardian. Rochelle was beating up on top grade competition over the sprint course before the American Derby. It looked as if she would like the extra distance.
Casper Van Dien (#1) gets his third run over the strip and will be coming late. He encountered slight trouble Monday night, but coming out the D.Q. Williams kennel he must be respected.
Roc A By Spinoff (#6) will be well bet off three straight second place finishes to the D.Q. trio of Wannadobadthings, Caspian's Place, and Goodlucksterling (who are all Derby contestants).
Kiowa Mad Fly (#3) closed out February with three straight wins and enters round 2 off a pair of thirds. One has to admire his consistency. He was a steady top four finisher across town at Flagler.
Jazzy Ole Babe (#5) is an intriguing prospect. Jazzy ships in from Palm Beach and is a deep closer.
Poinciana Jo (#2), WW's McBride (#4), and Y Mickey (#7) complete the field.

Bottom Line: Although new to the 3/8ths distance, WW's Rochelle is classy enough to get it done. She faces a well balanced group in this race. Casper Van Dien underneath in any exotics.

The third qualifier (race 5) is another exciting race featuring the late running Goodlucksterling(#8). Sterling had terrible luck in round 1 when he was taken to the outside fence by BM Murphy who he will face again in this matchup. Sterling's best distance is probably the marathon course, but if he's sharp on his break and puts himself into the race early he could win easy.
Lonesome Lance (#7), a top point qualifier in the recently concluded Naples Derby, will try to get back on track. Lance won his initial race over the course defeating first round winner Show You Want. In his next start, Monday night's first round, he was fourth. Lance has done well from this post and he'll try and get involved early.
First round winner BM Murphy (#4) will try and keep it together for round two. She's displayed some reckless on track behavior since leaving Palm Beach for Mardi Gras. I imagine another incident could result in a decision from the judges that could include a disqualification from the event.  She's fast and is capable on any day of beating this group.
Pack Power (#2), Turbo Porsha (#3), O Ya Black Ice (#5), and Brandon Marshall (#6) complete the lineup.

Bottom Line: With Murphy in the race she could throw a wrench in your plans, but look for Lance to bounce back. Sterling will give an honest run, and Fulton (#1) is posted well enough, can't ignore him.

The fourth qualifying event (race 6) has its share of stars as well. One of Miami racing's best, Smoked Em (#4), Internet sensation Blazin Spitfire (#5) and although Ah's Sly wasn't able to make the race she's represented by her little sister Ah's Annika (#7). The one to beat could be the dog on the outside, Flying Carne (#8).
Carne's connections decided to let him hang around after his competitive but failed attempt to make the World Classic Final. He went straight to the backside after World Classic qualifying finding immediate success. One of his three recent second place finishes was a runner up effort to Show You Want in round one. Carne will use his sprinter's speed to try and out break his rivals.
Smoked Em is also trying to convert his short game ability into long range success. His closing style at 550 yards seemed to fit this distance but he was a fading to seventh to Wannadobadthings in round one.
Spry Ross (#1), Samboya's Dream (#2), Atascocita Tiera (#3), and Jasmine's Fire (#6) are also set to go in this race.

Bottom Line: This could be the spot where one could take a stab at a long shot. The favorites may not be true 3/8ths dogs and there's a mixture of young pups and dogs up in class. Ah's Annika, though just twenty-one months old, has the pedigree to be a good one or at least the most legitimate distance threat. Flying Carne looks the part on paper.  This could be his best shot at a qualifying round victory. Take a watchful approach on Smoked Em.

Qualifier five (race 7) will have the starting box overflowing with speed, class, and talent. A victory in this race could make one of these dogs a standout or THE one to beat in the overall competition.
From the rail Wannadobadthings (#1) is always dangerous and is one of several who could go to post as the wagering favorite. Like a few of his kennel mates, his prime distance is the 770 yard course but he's no stranger to the 3/8ths either. In fact he's won two in a row at 660 yards, including an easy first round score. His only fault is that he can't allow himself to fall too far behind early against this talented group.
If Kelsos Guardian (#4) can replicate his effort Monday night, he'll be difficult to catch. Highly regarded since he hit the track, this young phenomenon may have found his true calling as a top flight distance hound. The only thing that could stand in his way is his inexperience. He'll be a short price in an ultra tough group.
Wheeling track record holder Cry Exxon (#7) is still trying to find his stride since shipping in from northern Appalachia. He's worth a look and should be geared up for a strong effort off a pair thirds and fourths.
San Tan Nitrogen (#5) probably needed that last start, his first at the distance, a third in round one. He was strong out of the box and took a commanding lead before tiring. A few trips at 3/8ths could be needed to become accustomed.
Ja's Jewel(#2), Lennox To Win (#3), Atascocita Tana (#6), and Jax Stanley Cup (#8) make up the rest.

Bottom Line: Kelsos Guardian looked great in the opening round but will be heavily bet. Cry Exxon is knocking on the door, but has yet to run to his potential. Take Wannadobadthings, who will give you a run for your money each time out. Note that Kelsos Guardian is boxed between two early speed dogs and the whole field is in good form.

The sixth and final qualifying race (race 8) serves as the nightcap for the evening card. Caspian's Place (#1) has yet to finish worse than third at this distance since switching courses in late January.
Hmg Seventynine (#2) is capable of lighting up the tote board if she grabs an early lead.
Ww E Charger (#3) may be set to put forth a big effort. Charger seems overdue and is in the perfect spot to grab valuable points.
WTD Sugarland (#8) has good enough closing ability to swallow these up late if he brings his game.
Bella Lipsticgal (#4), Kelsos Claymore (#5), Tree Shaker (#6), and CTW Defying Logic (#7) complete the field.

Bottom Line: It looks on paper like this is Caspian's Place's race to lose, but David Peck's Defying Logic, if he avoids trouble, could factor in at a price.  Hmg Seventynine plays the Wildcard.

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