Monday, April 30, 2012

One Change That Can Make You Money

Win With Eb...
Greyhound handicapping is based on what you know about 8 dogs who are running a race together. All the information is in the program, except for little things that only the dog owners and trainers know. True, we don't know if Sparky, the 3 dog, was just wormed or whether he's completely recovered from that spill he took the other day.

But we do know what happened in the last six races that each dog ran. We can figure out from their last six lines which post positions they like, which section of the track they prefer and whether they break or close well.

In other words, we know what happened in the recent past and that's how we predict what they're liable to do in this race, today. But that's not all we know. If you delve a little deeper into each dog's performance statistics, you can tell something else about them.

You can tell whether they're changing. Their percentage of wins, their quiniela percentage and the number of times they've come in third are right there in front of you. Look at them. If a dog has a winning percentage of 50%, which is very good, and it hasn't won a race in the last six races, this tells you something.

That dog is going through some kind of change. Maybe it's been wormed. Maybe it's risen in class to the point where it's in over its head, running with dogs that are better than it is. Maybe it's getting too old to maintain its win percentage.

Sometimes you can figure out why a dog is changing and sometimes you can't. But when you see this, it's definitely something that should figure into your handicapping. You should hink long and hard about whether you want to include a changing dog in your bets, especially if it's not changing for the better.

If you think that the change was only temporary, it's one thing. But if it looks to you like it's something permanent like aging or injury, better look at the other dogs very closely before you bet. Of course, the class and abilities of the other 7 dogs count for something no matter what changes the 8th dog is going through.

But I like to give a changing dog a couple of races to get its stride back before I bet on it. Unless I know that the change was because of something that is no longer a factor, I stick with dogs that are more consistent and have more reason to make me bet on them.

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